False springs in the Netherlands: climate change impact assessment with the false spring damage indicator model

Abstract

Strong night frosts in spring have the potential to cause severe damage to fruit trees, causing up to €3.3 billion of damage in Europe in 2017. If temperatures drop below − 2.2 °C after the growing season starts, this phenomenon is referred to as a false spring. For the Netherlands, the risk of false spring damage increased during the past 70 years, due to the decreasing time between the last strong night frost and the flower budburst. This raises the question of whether this trend will continue under future influences of climate change. To analyse the development of false spring damage risks, we developed the False Spring Damage Indicator (FSDI) model. Applying this model to the Dutch KNMI’14 climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2085 showed a decrease in false spring damage risk. The historical risk for 60% bud damage was reduced to around 40% for the moderate scenario in 2050 and to less than 15% for the severe scenario in 2050 and all scenarios in 2080. False spring damage varied spatially throughout the Netherlands. Currently, more severe damage can be expected in the east, while coastal regions in the north and west are less prone to false spring damage. In the future, this is expected to become more uniform over the Netherlands, as the risk in the east is predicted to decrease strongly, becoming similar to the low damage risk in the coastal regions.