Abstract
This research aims to analyze the impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), differences in interest rates and inflation on capital flight in eight developing countries of ASEAN regions. This research uses secondary data during the periods of 2007-2016. The research methodology used in this study is panel data regression with FEM (Fixed Effect Model). The results of this research show that simultaneously, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), differences in interest rates and inflation have significant impact on capital flight. Partially, all of variables have significant positive impact on capital flight. However, the variable of REER shows insignificant to capital flight.
Highlights
Berdasarkan data dari World Bank (Database 2017), negara berkembang anggota ASEAN yang memiliki utang luar negeri yaitu Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philipina, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos dan Kamboja yang mengalami kenaikan utang luar negeri secara serentak pada tahun 2007 dan cenderung terus mengalami kenaikan sampai tahun 2016
This research aims to analyze the impact of Gross Domestic Product
The research methodology used in this study is panel data regression
Summary
Berdasarkan hasil pengolahan data, didapatkan nilai R-squared pada output regresi data panel FEM Cross-section SUR (dilakukan langkah pembobotan untuk mengatasi masalah uji asumsi klasik yang lain yaitu uji autokorelasi) sebesar 0,932196. Pada tahap cross-section weights, ketika sudah dilakukan langkah pembobotan pertama dengan metode panel FEM cross-section weights didapat hasil estimasi pengujian yaitu 1,7430 > 1,570021 < 2,672441, masalah autokorelasi belum dapat diatasi. Sehingga perlu dilakukan langkah pembobotan yang kedua dengan menggunakan metode panel FEM cross-section SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression) didapat hasil estimasi pengujian yaitu 1,7430 < 2,106437 < 2,672441 maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa masalah autokorelasi dapat diatasi sehingga data dalam penelitian ini terbebas dari masalah autokorelasi. Setelah dipastikan bahwa tidak terdapat masalah normalitas dan lolos uji asumsi klasik, selanjutnya dapat ditentukan estimasi model regresi data panel dalam penelitian ini
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