Fair Share or Status Quo?

Abstract

This article presents an analysis of the potential impact of a program of regional fair share housing in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area: the Livable Communities Act (LCA). The author argues that fair share programs can be judged by two standards: (1) the degree to which they meet current and projected needs for affordable housing and (2) the extent to which they redistribute affordable housing opportunities throughout a region. The analysis shows that the LCA fails on the first of these standards and only minimally meets the second. Should program goals be fully met by all of the participating communities, the LCA will result in a decrease in the relative availability of affordable housing by 12 percent compared to a continuation of the status quo. In addition, overall, the program will not result in significant redistribution of affordable housing opportunities within the region. Only among rental housing units, which make up only 17 percent of estimated future residential development, is there the potential for progress toward fair share redistribution.