Fair Plan 8: Earth’s Climate Future—Pope Francis’ Population Mistake

Michael E Schlesinger,Emily F Cross,Michael Ring

doi:10.4236/acs.2016.61008

Michael E Schlesinger, Emily F Cross + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2016.61008

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Abstract

Pope Francis wrote in his Encyclical Letter Laudato Si’: On Care for Our Common Home: “Instead of resolving the problems of the poor and thinking of how the world can be different, some can only propose a reduction in the birth rate.” … “To blame population growth instead of extreme and selective consumerism on the part of some is one way of refusing to face the issues.” Here, we test the hypothesis that population size does not matter. We do so in terms of the effect of the size of the human population on its emission of greenhouse gases. We find that the hypothesis is false = PO-PULATION MATTERS. Ceteris paribus, the larger the population of human beings on Planet Earth, the more difficult it will be to reduce, and finally eliminate, the emission of greenhouse gases by humanity and, thereby, constrain human-caused climate change = Anthropogenic Global Warming.

Highlights

In his Encyclical Letter, Laudato Si’ (Praise Be to You) [1], Pope Francis wrote in Paragraph 50: “Instead of resolving the problems of the poor and thinking of how the world can be different, some can only propose a reduction in the birth rate.” At times, developing countries face forms of international pressure which make economic assistance contingent on certain policies of “reproductive health”
Earth’s Climate Future, Population Matters
We show that human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and, Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), depend strongly on the number of human beings on Earth. From this we conclude that purposefully reducing the future growth of the human population will diminish the difficulty in preventing AGW from exceeding the 2 ̊C (3.6 ̊F) limit adopted by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change “to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” [2]

Summary

Introduction

In his Encyclical Letter, Laudato Si’ (Praise Be to You) [1], Pope Francis wrote in Paragraph 50: “Instead of resolving the problems of the poor and thinking of how the world can be different, some can only propose a reduction in the birth rate.” At times, developing countries face forms of international pressure which make economic assistance contingent on certain policies of “reproductive health”. Attention needs to be paid to imbalances in population density, on both national and global levels, since a rise in consumption would lead to complex regional situations, as a result of the interplay between problems linked to environmental pollution, transport, waste treatment, loss of resources and quality of life. We show that human-caused (anthropogenic) emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and, Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), depend strongly on the number of human beings on Earth. From this we conclude that purposefully reducing the future growth of the human population will diminish the difficulty in preventing AGW from exceeding the 2 ̊C (3.6 ̊F) limit adopted by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change “to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” [2]

Past Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Population

Future Population and CO2 Emissions

Conclusion