Failure probability Forecasting for the warning and evacuation management system in case of fire

Abstract

This article discusses the issue of fire safety insurance in educational institutions based on warning and fire evacuation control systems reliability modeling and forecasting. It was shown that these institutions are need of warning and evacuation management systems. To identify failures of individual elements of a complex technical system, failures were monitored during a selected period. When using the calculation method, the probability of trouble-free operation of the elements of the equipment system was identified. Based on the statistical data, schemes of the probability of failure-free operation of the warning and evacuation management systems were constructed and failure probabilities were determined. Ways to increase the level of trouble-free operation were identified. The requirements for security systems to maintain the required level were considered. They include compliance with the international fire safety standards, regular checks of systems operability, employees training to react to signals triggered by a fire alarm, and evacuation. The high efficiency of the methodology for determining the probabilities of trouble-free operation of the system at various stages of facility design and commissioning was emphasized. The contribution of the methodology to the general calculation of fire risks was shown.