Failure probability assessment and prediction of corroded pipeline under earthquake by introducing in-line inspection data

Abstract

Considering the transient ground deformation (TGD) and permanent ground deformation (PGD), uncertain modeling is proposed by multiple limit states with time-dependent corrosion growth and seismic damage, as well as the rehabilitation. In this work, the developed corrosion growth model implemented the correlated 3D stochastic growth for one-defect. It then embedded in the combination model involved in corroded defect and seismic loading. Further, the Bayesian method and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation were used to obtain the updating of failure probability by introducing rehabilitation and in-line inspection (ILI) data. Failure probability was performed to study this difference using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to compare with the effect of the different parameters. A numerical example was investigated proposed models, and the influence of assessment rehabilitation was also discussed. The results indicate the potential impact of seismic damage for the corroded pipeline is significant, which can optimize the frame reliability-based anti-seismic for pipe infrastructure.