Failure Probability Analysis of Interlayer Sliding Belts of Gravity Dams Under Seismic Load

Abstract

In this paper, an improved model is presented for analysis of failure probability of the interlayer sliding belts under seismic loads. Firstly, using the theory of the Markov chain, the relation between failure probabilities of specified interlayer sliding belts and elements in this interlayer sliding belt is deduced. Then, the failure function is proposed according to the destructive characteristic of concrete, the pseudo excitation method is utilized in order to obtain the probability distribution of element stresses in specified interlayer sliding belts, and the improved response surface method based on weighted regression is used to calculate the failure probability of elements in specified interlayer sliding belts. Finally, an algorithm is established to calculate the failure probability of the specified interlayer sliding belts. In this paper, the mean value and variance of the tensile strength of elements are changed when interlayer sliding belt is developed. The numerical results show that the conditional failure probability in specified interlayer sliding belts at the head of the dam tends to decrease. However, the tendency of conditional failure probability in the other specified interlayer sliding belts is complicated. And the interlayer sliding belt at head of the concrete gravity dam is the most dangerous. In addition, the tendencies of the mean value and mean square deviation of stresses in different specified interlayer sliding belts are similar. The mean value of stress in different specified interlayer sliding belts tends to decrease but the tendency of mean square deviation changes from decrease to increase. The range of the mean value and the mean square deviation of stress in specified interlayer sliding belts at the heel of the dam is the greatest of all.