Abstract
Failing to plan is planning to fail: lessons learned from a small-scale scenario planning process with marginalized fishers from South Africa’s southern Cape
Highlights
Scenario planning, a well-established tool used in various applications, can address challenges that arise from the effects of long-term system change, uncertainty, and complexity (e.g., Amer et al 2013, Jarre et al 2013, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2014, IPBES 2016, Maury et al 2017)
We developed four stories of the future of Melkhoutfontein within the context of an overarching theoretical approach to support the implementation of an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAF)
These stories incorporate scenarios on key driving forces identified by participants, complemented by key driving forces identified through a related process using problem structuring tools
Summary
A well-established tool used in various applications, can address challenges that arise from the effects of long-term system change, uncertainty, and complexity (e.g., Amer et al 2013, Jarre et al 2013, IPCC 2014, IPBES 2016, Maury et al 2017). Scenario-based approaches offer a helpful way to respond to change by allowing stakeholders to envisage possible futures in pursuing a pre-determined and common goal. Scenarios provide a valuable alternative to predictions and forecasts, letting stakeholders consider the type of future they want (Haward et al 2013). Scenario planning stimulates strategic thinking through the process of creating multiple potential futures (Amer et al 2013). The development process can be helpful to resource users as they are considering permutations of, and possible pathways to, those futures (Daw et al 2015)
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