Factors that Predict Survival From Mesenteric Ischemia in the Geriatric Patient: Not a Death Sentence.

Abstract

The mortality rate from mesenteric ischemia is reported to be as high as 80%. The goal of our study was to identify demographic and clinical predictors of post-operative mortality and discharge disposition among elderly patients with mesenteric ischemia. All patients 65years and older who underwent emergency surgery (ES) for the management of mesenteric ischemia in the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2007 to 2017 were included. Univariate analyses and logistic regressions were used to identify independent predictors of mortality and discharge disposition. A total of 2438 patients met inclusion criteria, with a median age of 77years and 60.8% being female. The 30-day mortality of the overall cohort was 31.5% and the 30-day morbidity was 65.3%. The following were the major predictors of 30-day mortality: pre-operative diagnosis of septic shock [OR: 2.46, (95% CI: 1.94-3.13)], dialysis dependence [OR: 2.05, (95% CI: 1.45-2.90)], recent weight loss [OR: 1.80, (95% CI: 1.16-2.79)], age ≥80years [OR: 1.67, (95% CI: 1.25-2.23)], and ventilator dependence [OR: 1.65, (95% CI: 1.23-2.23)]. In the absence of these predictors, survival rate was 84%. The major predictors of discharge to post-acute care (PAC) included age ≥80years [OR: 3.70, (95% CI: 2.50-5.47)] and pre-operative septic shock [OR: 2.20, (95% CI: 1.42-3.41)]. In the geriatric patient, a diagnosis of mesenteric ischemia does not equate to an automatic death sentence. The presence of certain pre-operative risk factors confers a high risk of mortality, whereas their absence is associated with a high chance of survival.