Factors related to the failure of FDIC-insured US banks

Abstract

PurposeThis study aims to analyze the factors related to the failure of 535 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)-Insured United States banks in conjunction with the 2008 financial crisis.Design/methodology/approachThe research consists of an analysis of the following three five-year partitions: pre-crisis (2002–2006), crisis (2007–2011) and post-crisis (2012–2016). The main hypothesis is that the factors explaining bank failures vary by period. Using logistic regression analysis, the authors identify the desirable models by period based on three model selection strategies.FindingsLiquidity and non-risk-based capital ratios are important explanatory factors in all three periods. As the authors can see from the results, when comparing the full period (2002–2016) and the three five-year period partitions (2002–2006, 2007–2011 and 2012–2016), the ratios change from period to period, but they measure the same financial areas of concern in different contexts as follows: liquidity, leverage/risk exposure and capital adequacy. Risk-based capital ratios are not effective predictors of bank failures.Originality/valueRecent academic studies have analyzed bank failures during periods that cover the years before, during and after the crisis, but most of these studies discuss bank failures in the forecasting context only. This study includes an analysis of failure determinants during pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis subperiods based on the FDIC monitoring system of bank failures and identifies what ratios are more relevant during each period and how they change from period to period.