Factors predictive of tumor recurrence and overall survival in patients with esophageal cancer who have pathologic complete response after neo-adjuvant therapy.

Abstract

170 Background: Pathologic complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant therapy is presumably associated with favorable outcomes in patients (pts) with esophageal cancer, but reported survival rates vary. This study evaluates patterns of recurrence after curative esophagectomy and identifies factors predictive of recurrent disease and overall survival (OS) in patients with pCR. Methods: An IRB-approved, retrospective review of a prospective esophageal cancer database was conducted. Patient demographics, perioperative data, and outcomes were examined. Recurrences were classified as locoregional (LR) or systemic. Cox regression model and Kaplan–Meier (KM) plots were used for survival analysis. Results: 837 pts with invasive esophageal cancer treated at a single institution from 1994 to 2013 were identified. 176 pts underwent neoadjuvant therapy followed by surgery and had pCR. Of these, 93.7% had adenocarcinoma and 6.3% had squamous cell cancer. Mean age was 56.6 and most pts were white (96.6%) males (79.5%). Median follow up was 42.6 months. 95 pts were treated before 2007 and 81 after. Most pts (85%) underwent transthoracic esophagectomy. All 176 pts received chemotherapy and radiation; dose-specific information was available on 144 pts, of whom most received 50.4 Gy (45%). 170 pts had recurrence data available: 39 (22.9%) had recurrent disease at a mean of 18.3 months; 5 (2.9%) with LR and 34 (20%) with systemic disease. On multivariate analysis, when evaluating patient demographics, pretreatment stage, type of surgery, type of chemotherapy, and number of lymph nodes resected, only pretreatment stage was associated with recurrence (p = 0.04). Median time to recurrence was 26.3 months for LR disease and 10.9 months for systemic disease (p = 0.3). KM estimates determined that pre-treatment stage and time of treatment ( < 2007 or ≥ 2007) were predictive of improved OS (p < 0.01, = 0.03). Conclusions: The incidence of disease recurrence in pts who experience pCR is low. The pretreatment stage and time of treatment were independent predictors of improved OS. Enhancing treatment strategies to maximize pCR would improve outcomes in pts with esophageal cancer.