Factors predicting a decrease in suicidality among young people (0-28 years old)

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Abstract Background Suicide, self-harm and suicidal thoughts (i.e., suicidality) are important public health concerns. Most youth that experience suicidality find a way to overcome these affronts. Preventative public health measures require an understanding of factors that can help youth overcome their suicidality. Methods Data come from a Dutch prospective birth-cohort study that surveyed youth from age 11 to 28 (measurements 2-3 years apart). We determined the proportion of youth that experienced suicidality across seven waves and focused on changes in suicidality, and factors associated with changes in suicidality using linear discriminant analysis. We examined a mix of individual, family, peer and socio-cultural factors in line with an ecological framework, e.g. the Interpersonal Theory of Suicide. Results Between 4-8% of youth experienced suicidal thoughts and between 2-5% experienced self-harm across time points. Most youth (89%-94% across time points) did not experience changes in suicidality, while between 3-6% experienced a decline of suicidal thoughts and between 2-4% a decline in self-harm across time points. Discriminant analyses could correctly identify ≈90% of subgroup per case (decline, increase, stable suicidality). But, the model was not very accurate in predicting which youth belonged to the declining suicidality subgroup. Functions with best predictive ability indicated the importance of interpersonal factors; belonging to peers, parents, classmates, teachers and religion. Also, overall happiness and positive changes in romantic relationships and family had predictive value. Conclusions It remains difficult to distinguish youth who experience a decrease in suicidality. Interpersonal factors may play a role in changes in suicidality, but we need to identify new factors related to declines in suicidality. Future prospective birth-cohort study should consider including factors that may be better predictors of decreases in suicidality and mental health in general. Key messages • Factors that contribute to decreases in suicidality will enrich suicide prevention strategies, which have until thusfar mostly been informed by a risk perspective. • Interpersonal factors might play an important role in changes in suicidality among youth, which indicates we need an ecological perspective on suicidality rather than an individual perspective.