Factors of perceived threat regarding severe storm events: Results of a vignette study in four European countries

Abstract

Crisis communication influences how the public perceives an impending disaster, which is assumed to be a key factor in shaping disaster response. These situational perceptions are likely influenced by message-related factors and recipient characteristics. This study aimed to investigate the association of the perception regarding an impending severe storm event after receiving a warning message (i.e., perceived threat) with message characteristics, experiences with similar events, and prior perceptions regarding this type of event (i.e., perceived risk). A vignette study with N = 326 participants from four European countries (Finland, Germany, Hungary, and Poland) was carried out within the framework of the “Snowball” project. The participants were confronted with a warning message concerning an impending severe storm event. Information source and amount of information were systematically varied, resulting in a 2 × 2 design. Perceived risk (PR) was measured before receiving the warning, perceived threat (PT) directly afterwards. Both PR and PT were measured as subjective likelihood and concern. A multiple regression was conducted for each PT-measure. Contrary to expectations, the message characteristics were not associated with any PT-measure. The associations of experience and PT differed depending on the type of PT-measure. As expected, PR-likelihood was positively associated with PT-likelihood, and PR-concern was positively related to PT-concern. The results illustrate how current judgements might be biased by previous judgements and experiences, regardless of warning characteristics. The positive association of PR and PT underlines the importance of pre-disaster risk communication for laying the foundations of effective crisis communication by raising awareness of specific types of disasters.