Factors of Mass Casualty Terrorism

Abstract

Several changes in terrorist tactics have occurred recently. First, terrorist attack targets have changed from hard to soft targets. Second, terrorists are actively using low-tech terrorism methods that they can choose easily. Finally, terrorist attacks are evolving into complex and simultaneous terrorist events. This study endeavored to determine whether these changes affected the number of casualties from terrorist events that occurred in developed countries. Based on the rational choice theory and situational crime prevention, the variables were constructed based on two dimensions: “target factors in terrorism” and “terrorist attack factors in terrorism.” To achieve the purpose of this study, a negative binomial regression analysis was performed based on data from the Global Terrorism Database. Consequently, variables such as “exposure,” “protection capability,” “attack patterns (vehicle),” and “suicide terrorism” were verified for their statistically significant influence on “mass casualty terrorism (MCT).” This study suggests that it is necessary to design a preventive environment and arrange for personnel at each site that is vulnerable to terrorism to prevent MCT events from occurring inside facilities.