Factors Leading To Buildings Being DemolishedAnd Probability Of Remainder

Abstract

Land use changes generally arise when older style buildings are demolished and replaced with contemporary buildings. The decision making of landowners can be observed through such phenomena. Hence the direction and the speed of land use change are dependent on the possibility and probability that buildings will be demolished or will remain. Various research studies about the life span of buildings have been carried out, since the life span of buildings is one of the basic concerns for land use forecast. The reliability theory has been applied in many studies, and they, in turn, proposed methods for assessing the probability that buildings will be demolished or remain in the future. However, it has been generally considered that the life span of buildings is a simple function only involved with the age of buildings. In this paper we discuss “factors leading to buildings being demolished” and “probability that buildings will be demolished or remain” in the process of land use transition. We examine the characteristics of buildings (age of building, construction materials, building type, etc.) and the characteristics of place (land use zoning, building area to plot ratio, accessibility to railway station, etc.), and propose a statistical model that can evaluate how these factors affect the life span of buildings. Also, some numerical examples are shown using actual data compiled by local government in Tokyo, Japan.