Factors Influencing the Probability of Clearance and Time to Clearance of Canadian Homicide Cases, 1991-2011

Abstract

Both homicide and clearance rates in Canada have declined significantly over the last few decades. The existing literature predominantly focuses on differentiating between cleared and uncleared cases, with less attention given to circumstances affecting the time taken to solve homicides. To address this gap, data were taken from the Homicide Survey; 11,297 police-reported homicides in Canada between 1991 and 2011 were examined using both Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox regression. Although results showed some notable differences in clearance times among demographic variables, incident characteristics—notably drug or gang involvement—largely overshadowed the effects of victim characteristics.