Factors influencing growth of horticultural exports in Kenya: a gravity model analysis

Abstract

Horticultural exports are among the key drivers of economic development in Kenya. Their production either complements that of the Northern Hemisphere on a seasonal basis or provides more cost effective supply of vegetables, flowers and fruits throughout the year. The aim of this paper is to investigate the factors that determine horticultural exports of Kenya using a gravity model analysis. The paper reviews both the theoretical development and empirical application of the gravity model. The research findings will provide more knowledge on the potential ways in which the gravity model can be applied in geographical studies. The results of the study may also assist in trade policy formulation in order ensure that the country’s horticultural export potential is fully exploited to promote national development. The study analysed data on the value of horticultural exports to the top 10 major trading partners with Kenya. These countries included the UK, and selected members of the European Union. The GDP and population of the two countries and the distance between their capital cities were used in the gravity model analysis. The colonial ties and use of common language were used as dummy variables in the model. Kenya was a former colony of the UK and both countries share a common language. The results reveal that the values of Kenya’s horticultural exports are higher in the European Union. Great Britain’s share of the horticultural exports by value is also significant. Therefore, Kenya should explore ways of improving its trade relations with the countries concerned.