Factors Influencing Farm Operator Expectations on Future Levels of Government Support

Abstract

Using the 2001 ARMS, we investigate farm operator expectations regarding the continuation of government payments. Given the farmer expects payments to continue, we further investigate the expected direction of changes in payments. The 2001 Farm Bill was being debated at the time of the survey while the previous Farm Bill, the 1996 FAIR Act, was more marketoriented than previous legislation. Following the significant changes in the previous bill, this data provides an interesting glimpse into how the changing nature of the previous legislation influenced expectations for future agricultural policy. Significant variables influencing a farmer operator’s expectations for continued government payments and level of support include education, age, offfarm income of primary operator, off-farm income of the spouse, farm type, increased farm debt since 1996, and usage of risk management strategies.