Factors influencing ecosystem services in the Pearl River Delta, China: Spatiotemporal differentiation and varying importance

Abstract

Understanding the influence mechanism of ecosystem services will provide useful guides for practical ecological management. However, existing findings of the key factors affecting ecosystem services have failed to identify the level of importance of individual factors and have not considered their temporal and spatial heterogeneity. This study employed the random forest model and a geographically and temporally weighted regression model (GTWR) in order to analyze the varying importance and spatiotemporal differentiation of the factors influencing ecosystem services in the China's Pearl River Delta (PRD) from 2000 to 2015. The results show that the importance of human factors (socioeconomic factors and land-use integrity) increased, while that of natural factors (topographic factors and climate factors) decreased. Due to the constraints that it poses in relation to human behavior, the variable slope was found to be the most influential factor in relation to ecosystem services. Meanwhile, the importance of population density increased rapidly over the study period. Obvious spatiotemporal differentiation was identified in the evolution of the influencing factors. The influence exerted by land-use integrity in the center was opposite to that which it exerted in the periphery of the PRD in 2010 and 2015. These findings can provide guidance for decision makers seeking scientific guidance on ecological management. The paper also sets out a series of policy proposals.