Factors Influencing Commuting Mode Choice: A Multilevel Analysis

Abstract

Introduction: Mitigating private vehicle use can lead to improvements in physical health and reduce traffic-related emissions. Thus, influencing travel patterns and behaviors of individuals has become a focus for policy makers and researchers. This research provides a multilevel analysis on individual characteristics as well as area-level climate parameters that may influence an individual’s commuting mode choices across multiple Canadian cities. Methods: The study used individual data from the 2011 National Household Survey conducted by Statistics Canada. The city-level climate data were collected from Environmental Canada’s 1981-2010 Normals & Averages collection. Different multilevel models were fitted using MLwiN version 2.35 to investigate relationship between socioeconomic and climate variables and commuting mode choice (private, public and walking/cycling), using private vehicle as a reference. Results: Older age and higher income groups tend to prefer taking private vehicle in comparison to other modes. Educational and gender differences were also a significant determinant of mode choices. The climate variable indicate an increase in annual temperature encourages walking/cycling (OR=1.24, 95% CI: 1.03-1.48), but an increase in annual average summer temperature is associated with higher private transport use (OR=0.80, 95% CI: 0.69-0.92). Higher average winter temperature was significantly associated with higher odds of taking private vehicle compared to public transport. Conclusions: Individual characteristics can allow policy makers to identify target groups for promoting more sustainable modes of transportation. The climate variables indicate that temperature can affect travel decisions differently between locales with distinct climate condition, thus policies should be local. As climate change occurs, transportation policies should also consider heat threshold in which more individuals may switch to private vehicle use for more comfortable traveling.