Factors influencing changes in modal choice in the Toronto region

Abstract

The paper summarizes the changes in modal transport choice behaviour that occurred in the Toronto region between 1986 and 1991. The evidence presented shows that the region has become more dependent on automobile travel, making the sustainable transport targets adopted by Canada even more difficult to achieve. These changes are analyzed in terms of (i) changes in the size of the socio-demographic market segments that influence modal transport choice, (ii) changes in the choice probabilities of these market segments, and (iii) changes in the spatial structure of the Toronto region. The socio-demographic changes during the 1986–1991 period are less favourable to public transport and the probabilities of selecting public transport for the journey to work have decreased substantially for most of the market segments. The paper shows the overwhelming influence of development density on modal transport choice and the beneficial influence of adjacent high density employment and residential densities on the use of nonmotorized travel. The paper argues that the excessive auto-dependency of the Toronto region is likely to change only if high density suburban development forms are created and comprehensive road and parking pricing schemes introduced. Key words: urban transport, transport mode choice, public transport, regional development.