Factors in Intention to Get the COVID-19 Vaccine Change Over Time: Evidence from a Two-Wave U.S. Study

Abstract

Objectives: To identify factors—e.g., demographics, beliefs and attitudes about COVID-19 and its vaccines, trust of authorities—associated with vaccination intentions, and whether associations changed.Methods: A nationally representative sample of Americans was surveyed in late October 2020 (n = 1028), and in February 2021 (n = 803), about their intention to get the vaccine, with hypothesized factors assessed in both waves.Results: Perceived vaccine attributes (efficacy, riskiness, affect, dread), seasonal flu vaccination experience, and trust in authorities and belief in conspiracy theories were the strongest factors overall, particularly in Wave 2 (with Wave 1 intentions); demographics were stronger factors when COVID-19 vaccines were still hypothetical.Conclusions: Despite changing concerns about particular U.S. demographic groups’ COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, the strongest factors in vaccination intention concerned vaccine experience and vaccine beliefs and attitudes that may be influenced by education, and by trust and belief in conspiracy theories perhaps harder to change. Use of a novel longitudinal design, which here revealed moderate differences in intention-predictive factors over time, is warranted in future research to gain greater insight into vaccine hesitancy.