Factors generating boardings at Metro stations in the Seoul metropolitan area

Abstract

This study is an investigation into the factors affecting Metro demand at a station level. These factors were examined in the Seoul metropolitan area, which is one of the most densely populated regions in the world. A regression analysis was conducted with weekly average of station boardings as the dependent variable. Twenty-four independent variables were chosen based on insights and findings from previous studies. They were categorized into three groups: built environment, external connectivity, and intermodal connection. Seven variables proved to be significantly associated with station boardings: employment, commercial floor area, office floor area, net population density, number of transfers, number of feeder bus lines, and a dummy variable indicating transfer stations. Furthermore, in order to identify indirect or cyclic relationships among variables in generating station boardings, which cannot be accounted for in regression analysis, a structural equation model (SEM) was adopted. Prior to the model identification, a conceptual framework was hypothesized. After testing a number of candidate SEMs within the framework, the final SEM was established. All links in the final model were statistically significant. Several links represented cyclic relationships between variables. As a result, some variables that were insignificant in the regression analysis were included in the final SEM. Variables in the external connectivity group were found to be associated with station boardings, and variables for land use and walkability proved to be indirectly related to station boardings through employment. In particular, the number of feeder bus lines was found to have a reciprocal relationship with station boardings. Several separate links represented a cyclic relationship between external connectivity and intermodal connection.