Factors fragmenting the Russian Federation

Abstract

This paper examines the factors that threaten the future of the Russian Federation (RF). The observations are based on a study that focused on eight republics: Mordova, Udmurtia, Tatarstan, Mari El, Bashkortostan, Kabardino-Balkaria, Buryatia, and Altay Republic. These republics were selected for their geographic and economic significance to the RF. Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Udmurtia, and Mari El are located on important supply routes, such as the Volga River and the trans-Siberian railroad. Some of these republics are relatively wealthy, with natural resources such as oil (e.g., Tatarstan and Bashkortostan), and all eight republics play significant roles in the military-industrial complex. The importance of these republics to the RF contrasts to the relative insignificance of the independence-minded Northern Caucasus area. The author chose not to examine the Northern Caucasus region (except Kabardino-Balkaria) because these republics may have only a minor impact on the rest of the RF if they secede. Their impact would be minimized because they lie on the frontiers of the RF. Many Russians believe that {open_quotes}it might be best to let such a troublesome area secede.{close_quotes}