Abstract
As a characteristic of senior drivers aged 65 +, the low-mileage bias has been reported in previous studies. While it is thought to be a well-known phenomenon caused by aging, the characteristics of urban environments create more opportunities for crashes. This calls for investigating the low-mileage bias and scrutinizing whether it has the same impact on other age groups, such as young and middle-aged drivers. We use a crash database from the Ohio Department of Public Safety from 2006 to 2011 and adopt a macro approach using Negative Binomial models and Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) models to deal with a spatial autocorrelation issue. Aside from the low-mileage bias issue, we examine the association between the number of crashes and the built environment and socio-economic and demographic factors. We confirm that the number of crashes is associated with vehicle miles traveled, which suggests that more accumulated driving miles result in a lower likelihood of being involved in a crash. This implies that drivers in the low mileage group are involved in crashes more often, regardless of the driver’s age. The results also confirm that more complex urban environments have a higher number of crashes than rural environments.
Highlights
Traffic safety has increased with the development of technology that can enhance safety and protect people on the road
We developed statistical models to investigate the relationship between driver groups classified by age and vehicle miles traveled
The outcomes from the structured models provided some reasonable answers to the research questions, which focused on the low-mileage bias
Summary
Traffic safety has increased with the development of technology that can enhance safety and protect people on the road. Among the driver age groups, the share of seniors aged 65+ has increased, and so has the number of crashes involving older drivers [1]. It was thought that driving more increases crash risk [3,4]. This idea has begun to change since Janke [5] came up with the concept of low-mileage bias, which introduces the idea that people who drive less have more crashes per vehicle distance traveled [6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15]
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