Factors contributing to diurnal temperature range trends in twentieth and twenty-first century simulations of the CCCma coupled model

Abstract

Trends in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are examined in the late twentieth and the twenty-first centuries in a coupled climate model representing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface systems. Consistent with past studies, the DTR decreases during this time. These decreases are concentrated in middle latitudes, with much smaller changes occurring in the low latitudes. Strong seasonal characteristics to this pattern exist, although these are different in either hemisphere. In the model integrations, variations in the DTR are much more sensitive to changes in feedbacks than in direct forcings. The DTR is found to be insensitive to the scattering of sunlight by sulfate aerosols and the increased mean temperature. Instead, variations in the DTR arise mostly from changes in clouds and in soil moisture. Consequently, the decreasing trends stem from increases in the reflection of solar radiation by clouds moderated by decreases in soil moisture, mostly through its effect on the ground heat capacity. Both factors contribute about equally to the DTR trend. The exception to this relation occurs in the middle latitudes during winter, when snow cover reduces the influence of changes in solar radiation and soil moisture. Decreases during this season are a consequence of the artificial tendency in the model for the DTR to be very small when the mean temperature is near the freezing point. While the accuracy of these conclusions depends upon the model's ability to represent the relevant processes, the results highlight the importance of clouds and land surface processes to the DTR and its long-term change. The importance of soil moisture found here implies that changes in the physiological response of vegetation and in land use could have important effects on the DTR.