Factors associated with the occurrence of tuberculosis and its spatial distribution in a Brazilian city, 1991-2010

Abstract

This article seeks to identify factors associated with the incidence of tuberculosis and the spatial distribution of the disease in Olinda, Pernambuco, from 1991 to 2010. In order to study the factors associated with the disease, Poisson regression was applied and standardized morbidity ratios were utilized for the spatial exploratory analysis. Although a reduction in the average incidence of tuberculosis in Olinda was observed, the rate remains high in comparison with the national average. Mapping according to five-year periods suggests rate increases until 2005, with a decline between 2006 and 2010 and the persistence of high incidence in areas of greater socioeconomic need. The highest tuberculosis incidence rates were associated in each area with the proportions of illiteracy, of heads of household without income, of households lacking water supply and of older adults, as well as with the presence of cases of retreatment and of households with two or more new cases of tuberculosis. Incorporating a spatial component is key for the organization of health services and the planning of epidemiological surveillance for tuberculosis.