Factors associated with spatial distribution of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome

Abstract

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) was firstly identified in mainland China in 2009 and the geographic distribution has expanded in recent years. In this study, we constructed ecological niche models (ENM) of SFTS with meteorological factors, environmental factor, and density of domestic animals using MaxEnt. We found four significant associated factors including altitude, yearly average temperature, yearly accumulated precipitation, and yearly average relative humidity which accounted for 94.1% percent contribution. SFTS occurrence probability was high when altitude was between −100 m and 100 m, and the probability was nearly 0 when altitude was beyond 3000 m. Response curves of SFTS to the yearly average temperature, yearly accumulated precipitation, and yearly average relative humidity were all reversed V-shape. SFTS occurrence probability was high where the yearly average temperature, yearly accumulated precipitation, and yearly relative humidity were 12.5–17.5 °C, 700–2250 mm and 63–82%, respectively. ENMs predicted that the potential high-risk areas were mainly distributed in eastern areas and central areas of China. But there were some predicted potential high-risk areas where no SFTS case was reported up to date. More researches should be done to make clear whether SFTS case had occurred in these areas.