Abstract

Impact factor (if) is often used as a measure of journal quality. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether trials with positive outcomes are more likely to be published in journals with higher ifs. We reviewed 476 randomized phase iii cancer trials published in 13 journals between 1995 and 2005. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to investigate predictors of publication in journals with high ifs (compared with low and medium ifs). A positive outcome had the strongest association with publication in high-if journals [odds ratio (or): 4.13; 95% confidence interval (ci): 2.67 to 6.37; p < 0.001]. Other associated factors were a larger sample size (or: 1.06; 95% ci: 1.02 to 1.10; p = 0.001), intention-to-treat analysis (or: 2.53; 95% ci: 1.56 to 4.10; p < 0.001), North American authors (or for European authors: 0.36; 95% ci: 0.23 to 0.58; or for international authors: 0.41; 95% ci: 0.20 to 0.82; p < 0.001), adjuvant therapy trial (or: 2.58; 95% ci: 1.61 to 4.15; p < 0.001), shorter time to publication (or: 0.84; 95% ci: 0.77 to 0.92; p < 0.001), uncommon tumour type (or: 1.39; 95% ci: 0.90 to 2.13; p = 0.012), and hematologic malignancy (or: 3.15; 95% ci: 1.41 to 7.03; p = 0.012). Cancer trials with positive outcomes are more likely to be published in journals with high ifs. Readers of medical literature should be aware of this "impact factor bias," and investigators should be encouraged to submit reports of trials of high methodologic quality to journals with high ifs regardless of study outcomes.

Highlights

  • The impact factor of a journal for a given year is calculated by dividing the number of citations that year to articles published in the journal in the preceding 2 years by the number of “citable” articles published in those 2 years[1]

  • A positive outcome had the strongest association with publication in high-if journals [odds ratio: 4.13; 95% confidence interval: 2.67 to 6.37; p < 0.001]

  • Cancer trials with positive outcomes are more likely to be published in journals with high ifs

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Summary

Introduction

The impact factor (if) of a journal for a given year is calculated by dividing the number of citations that year to articles published in the journal in the preceding 2 years by the number of “citable” articles published in those 2 years[1]. For example: 2009 if = citations to articles published in 2007 and 2008 / articles published in 2007 and 2008. A compilation of ifs is published annually by Thomson–Reuters as Journal Citation Reports. The if can be increased by including a higher percentage of review articles, which are cited more often than other types of articles[3]. Impact factor (if) is often used as a measure of journal quality. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether trials with positive outcomes are more likely to be published in journals with higher ifs

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