Abstract
This paper explores the factors affecting the uptake of hybrid and electric vehicles in the European Union (EU) using data from two extensive cross-sectional surveys. Each survey consists of 26,500 responses to a questionnaire that combines socio-economic and behavioral aspects. The share of respondents across the EU stating that they would certainly or probably consider purchasing a hybrid or a battery-powered electric vehicle (H&EV) in the near future rose from 32% in 2014 to 37.4% in 2018. There is, however, a high variability among EU member states, as well as across different socio-economic groups. Propensity is highly correlated with income, educational attainment, and urbanization level. In order to address the high degree of collinearity, we applied a machine learning classification model to analyze and explain the interaction between the variables that affected the expressed propensity to purchase such a vehicle. The findings highlight something largely missing from the literature, namely that local conditions and regional variation are a major, if not decisive, factor regarding purchasing choices. Seen from a policy perspective, this conclusion may provide guidance regarding how to support the take up of H&EVs through measures that are tailored to the specific needs at the local level.
Highlights
The objective of this paper was to shed light on the socio-demographic characteristics of potential adopters of hybrid and electric vehicles (H&EVs) and to identify the main drivers for such a purchasing decision in Europe
Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEV), range-extended electric vehicles (E-REV), battery powered electric vehicles (BEV), and vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cell technologies (FCEV)
There are over a million H&EV registered in the European Union but they still constitute only about 2% of the market share between 2010 and 2017 [1]
Summary
The objective of this paper was to shed light on the socio-demographic characteristics of potential adopters of hybrid and electric vehicles (H&EVs) and to identify the main drivers for such a purchasing decision in Europe. In this study all hybrid and electric vehicles (H&EVs) are included. We used data from two extensive user surveys in the European Union (EU) and applied a machine learning classification model in order to evaluate the impact of each respondent’s profile, taking into account the high degree of collinearity among several of the variables that affected their choices. There are over a million H&EV registered in the European Union but they still constitute only about 2% of the market share between 2010 and 2017 [1]. Despite the promising market growth trends for H&EVs, several barriers are still preventing their more widespread uptake.
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