Abstract
Energy systems face radical –almost revolutionary changes which, however, will be stretched over the long period. The critical factors influencing the future development of the Polish power sector are discussed in this paper. Development of intermittent energy supplies from renewable energy sources imposes a challenge on the entire power system and requires specific adaptations and responses from traditional generation units. Up to the present time they have been used to work in the stable mode while now they need more operational flexibility. The share of RES constantly increases. On one hand, this has a very positive environmental impact, but on the other it disturbs economics of classical generation units. Also liberalized electricity markets are impacted and the risks in power investments have increased. The capacity market could constitute a remedy, which will incentivise the investments necessary to fill the gap created by closing exhausted and inefficient plants. On the consumer side electromobility could change the demand, not only in quantity but also in terms of load profile. Climate policy tends to detriment coal based generation. For countries abundant in coal resources which make use of this cheap fuel, such as Poland, the question arises about its future role. Even in the most coal-supportive scenarios revised in this paper its relative share in electricity generation does not exceed 50% in 2050 while in others it rather goes much below 30%. .
Highlights
The fuels and energy sectors undergo significant changes of various nature, changes that have never been observed up to the present
The undispatchable nature of variable renewable energy (VRE) like wind and PV have a major impact on the total power system that other plants have to compensate for to adapt to the power demand
The critical factors influencing the future development of the Polish power sector have been discussed in this paper
Summary
The fuels and energy sectors undergo significant changes of various nature, changes that have never been observed up to the present. The undispatchable nature of variable renewable energy (VRE) like wind and PV have a major impact on the total power system that other plants have to compensate for to adapt to the power demand. Their capacity factor is much lower than for classical base load sources and their production is intermittent and non-controllable. To overcome the problem of renewing controllable electric capacities new market instruments were introduced in the form of the capacity market, i.e. certain remuneration for supply guaranty [5] This should compensate for the price uncertainties for power investors. The time needed for a new energy supply and energy end-use technologies to achieve widespread market deployment ranges from 20 to almost 70 years and this should not be overlooked [7]
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