Factors Affecting the Frequency and Severity of Airport Weather Delays and the Implications of Climate Change for Future Delays

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of changing weather on air transportation operations over the coming 50 years by using London's Heathrow Airport as a case study. The weather parameters associated with weather-related delays at Heathrow are first identified, and statistical models for the occurrence and the severity of weather-related delay events are then presented. Thunderstorms, snow, and fog are found to increase the chance of weather-related delay by more than 25%, whereas an increase in wind speed of 1 knot above the mean increases the probability of delay by 8%. The severity of delay can be classified correctly in 84% of cases by using nine weather predictors. These statistical models are then used in conjunction with climate forecast data to estimate future weather-related delays. Seven climate models were used to calculate changes in weather parameters in the 2050s for three emissions scenarios. The climate model outputs limit the range of weather parameters that can be forecast; for those that cannot be included in the model, a qualitative assessment of their potential impact on airport delay is provided.