Abstract
China is considered to be the main carbon producer in the world. The per-capita carbon emissions indicator is an important measure of the regional carbon emissions situation. This study used the LMDI factor decomposition model–panel co-integration test two-step method to analyze the factors that affect per-capita carbon emissions. The main results are as follows. (1) During 1997, Eastern China, Central China, and Western China ranked first, second, and third in the per-capita carbon emissions, while in 2009 the pecking order changed to Eastern China, Western China, and Central China. (2) According to the LMDI decomposition results, the key driver boosting the per-capita carbon emissions in the three economic regions of China between 1997 and 2009 was economic development, and the energy efficiency was much greater than the energy structure after considering their effect on restraining increased per-capita carbon emissions. (3) Based on the decomposition, the factors that affected per-capita carbon emissions in the panel co-integration test showed that Central China had the best energy structure elasticity in its regional per-capita carbon emissions. Thus, Central China was ranked first for energy efficiency elasticity, while Western China was ranked first for economic development elasticity.
Highlights
In the 15th Conference of the Contracting Parties under the ‘‘United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’’ and the 5th Conference for the Parties under the ‘‘Kyoto Protocol’’ held during December 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark, the Chinese government solemnly promised that the carbon emissions per unit GDP would be decreased by 40–45% by 2020 from the 2005 levels
Panel co-integration analysis method The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method (LMDI) decomposition method was used to decompose the change in the per-capita carbon emissions between 1997 and 2009 into the energy structure factor, the energy efficiency factor, and the economic development factor. We studied how these three factors affected the per-capita carbon emissions in Eastern China, Central China, and Western China using the panel co-integration test method
In 1997, Eastern China, Central China, and Western China ranked first, second, and third in the per-capita carbon emissions, while in 2009 the ranking changed to Eastern China, Western China, and Central China, where Western China exceeded Central China
Summary
In the 15th Conference of the Contracting Parties under the ‘‘United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’’ and the 5th Conference for the Parties under the ‘‘Kyoto Protocol’’ held during December 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark, the Chinese government solemnly promised that the carbon emissions per unit GDP would be decreased by 40–45% by 2020 from the 2005 levels. China’s regional carbon emissions vary greatly, i.e., there was an eightfold difference in the per-capita carbon emissions of the highest and the lowest provinces in 2009, so we used the LMDI factor decomposition model–panel co-integration test two-step method to study the main factors affecting the per-capita carbon emissions in Chinese provinces, and explore the influential mechanisms and dynamic changes in the per-capita carbon emissions, thereby facilitating a quantitative analysis of the emissions reduction strategy. Shanxi and two other provinces that ranked in the top three were affected by their large coal reserves, which led to greater energy consumption This was not the case for Shanghai and Tianjin where the higher level of per-capita carbon emissions were closely related to their higher level of economic development. We used the LMDI decomposition method introduced by Ang et al The decomposition factors are expressed as follows
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