Factors affecting pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa) incidence in Mediterranean pine stands: A multiscale approach

Abstract

The occurrence of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa, hereafter PPM) in Mediterranean pine forests and plantations is of increasing concern as processes such as global warming and forest cover expansion have amplified the frequency and virulence of outbreaks. This study attempts to provide as complete an overview as possible of the different factors involved in pine forest susceptibility to PPM in 98 pine stands in Central Spain. A large study area (∼3,000 km2) was considered, including three different spatial scales (<1 ha, 1 ha, 10 ha) and four different pine tree species (Pinus pinaster, P. nigra, P. sylvestris, P. pinea), monitored over a 4-year period. Models were fitted for each of the three spatial scales, as well as for a combination of them (multiscale model). Pine species had a strong influence on vulnerability to PPM, with higher incidences in stands dominated by P. pinaster and P. nigra and lower for those dominated by P. sylvestris and P. pinea. Grazing pressure, a factor thus far disregarded, was also determining, with a prominent role at both the multiscale and the stand-scale levels. Other variables were highly influential at some of the spatial scales, showing a greater resistance in pine forests or plantations with a higher diversity of pine sizes, greater tree density, and a larger cover of non-host tree species. Open habitats also played a role in PPM incidence: we detected that, both at the locality and the plot scale, the presence of clearings occupied by bushes or rocky outcrops reduced vulnerability to PPM, while the clearings with a more simplified structure produced the opposite effect. We conclude that PPM incidence is greater in structurally simple pine forests, with strong grazing pressure and abundant open spaces without woody vegetation that may favour PPM pupation. To reduce damage by PPM, pine forest and plantations should be managed to avoid oversimplified forest structures. Patches of non-host tree species should be promoted, as well as some presence of shrubs in open areas. This implies avoiding overgrazing and other management models leading to an excessive increase in bare soil. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the implementation of these recommendations should consider the remaining challenges that need to be addressed in the current context of global change, such as the increased risk of wildfires and the emergence of other pests and diseases.