Factors Affecting Long-term Trends in the Estuarine Abundance of Pogge (Agonus cataphractus )

Abstract

Long-term data assembled from a power station on the Thames estuary were used to model fluctuations in the abundance of pogge (Agonus cataphractus) as a function of estuarine environmental, seasonal and prey availability variables using multiple regression. Temperature was the most important determinant of abundance, with seasonal variables and changes in the relative abundance of age-0 dab, Limanda limanda, possibly as prey, also holding important consequences for pogge abundance. Pogge abundance was also moderately influenced by: salinity, flow, salinity-flow interactions, changes in the relative abundance of Dover sole, Solea solea, and a trend variable. Regular patterns of seasonal (spring/winter) occurrences were associated with the use of warmer estuarine waters to optimize growth and reproductive potential and/or correlated with inshore spawning migrations and the availability of prey species. Both mechanisms suggest opportunistic use of estuarine habitats by pogge. Available temperature-abundance relationships further suggest a well-defined estuarine thermal niche, with an optimum at 9·5°C. There remains a requirement for improved information on the biology of pogge and factors governing the population dynamics of this important estuarine species.