Factors affecting graduation and student dropout rates at the University of KwaZulu-Natal

Mike Murray

doi:10.1590/sajs.2014/20140008

Abstract

This paper aims to introduce into the literature a competing risks methodology that can be used to help identify some student-specific and/or institutional factors which may be influencing the type of outcome experienced by a student when they leave the university system. Focusing on the length of time that it takes students to graduate or drop out from their studies, this new methodology was applied to a database comprising all students enrolled for a degree at the University of KwaZulu-Natal between the years 2004 and 2012. Financial aid and residence-based accommodation were found to help students who will eventually graduate to do so quicker in terms of the number of credit points that they have to repeat. These same factors, however, also cause someone who will eventually be excluded on academic grounds to linger longer in the system. By focusing on the number of extra credit points that it takes to reach a particular exit point, this paper introduces into the literature a new measure whose use will help to overcome some of the more obvious problems that can occur when one uses calendar time to measure the length of time that it takes to reach a particular exit point.

Highlights

The effects of race, gender and poverty, among other socio-economic variables, on student dropout or graduation from a higher education institution have been well documented in the literature.[1,2] in almost all of these studies, a standard survival analysis based approach was used to analyse the problem
The main purpose of this paper is to introduce into the literature a new competing risks based methodology which can be used to compare the time that it takes to graduate with that of two other types of exit: a voluntary dropout where a student with a good academic record has decided possibly to change universities or an involuntary dropout where the student has been excluded on academic grounds from further study because of poor performance
The extent to which these forces can successfully integrate with each other helps to determine whether students persist with their studies or leave the university, whether leaving is on a voluntary basis or an involuntary basis

Summary

Introduction

The effects of race, gender and poverty, among other socio-economic variables, on student dropout or graduation from a higher education institution have been well documented in the literature.[1,2] in almost all of these studies, a standard survival analysis based approach was used to analyse the problem. The extent to which these forces can successfully integrate with each other helps to determine whether students persist with their studies or leave the university, whether leaving is on a voluntary basis (because they want to enrol at another institution) or an involuntary basis (because their poor results have led to them being permanently excluded on academic grounds from the university) When interpreted in this manner, one deals with a decision-making process that fits more comfortably into a competing risks paradigm in which a variety of socioeconomic forces are pulling the student towards one or other mutually exclusive set of possible outcomes

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