Factors Affecting Farm Succession and Occupational Choices of Nominated Farm Successors in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

Muhammad Abid Shahzad,Christian Fischer,Syed Abubakr

doi:10.3390/agriculture11121203

Muhammad Abid Shahzad, Christian Fischer + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture11121203

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Abstract

Mountain farming communities in Pakistan are exhibiting an increased rate of rural-to-urban migration and a rapid growth in the non-farm sector, which has threatened the sustenance of agricultural activity. This study examined the determinants of farm succession using a logit regression model and employed a multinomial logit regression model to study the factors influencing the future occupational choices of the potential farm successors. The study was based on quantitative survey data obtained from 421 farm managers and 155 potential farm successors and qualitative data from 12 key informants from two different districts in Gilgit-Baltistan. The survey results show that around 67% of the farmers had a potential successor. Farm succession was mainly explained by farmer characteristics (e.g., farmer age, gender and education), farm characteristics (e.g., farm size, specialization in horticulture, etc.) and agricultural income. Regarding the occupational choices, part-time farming (66%) was the most commonly reported choice. The results indicate that it was mainly farm successors’ personal characteristics (such as age, education and marital status) and agricultural income that led to the choices “undecided” and “exit”, whilst farm characteristics (e.g., farm size) and the main farm operators’ non-farm activity were significantly associated with the choice “part-time”. Policies aimed at improving the local income situation and investments in skill-building and infrastructure development can assist in farm sustenance.

Highlights

Among the farmers with successors, around 80% are involved in other gainful activities, with an average agricultural income of about 100,000 Pakistani rupees, which is almost 25% higher than the agricultural income of farms without a successor
The parameter estimates of the logistic regression specify the direction of the impact and the level of significance, while the marginal effects quantify the change in the probability that farm succession will take place as a result of a change in the explanatory variable
In the GB region, increased rural outmigration combined with a greater share of off-farm income at the household level and the growing disinterest of the younger population in taking over family farms is posing threats to the continuity of agricultural activity

Summary

Introduction

One element of agricultural sustainability is the ability to find a successor to take over the family farm In disadvantaged areas, such as mountains, most farms are familyoperated. Farm takeover by an outsider would entail high investments and the use of hired labor with very low profit margins expected This would increase the likelihood of farm abandonment. Such a farm transfer would imply the loss of the farm-specific, experience-based knowledge and expertise accumulated within the household [4]. This is why intergenerational farm transfer is often a necessary condition for farm survival, in mountain areas [5]

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