Abstract
Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change and variability. This research investigates the factors that affect farm management adaptation strategies to climate change in west of Lake Tana and Beles river watersheds of Northwest Ethiopia. A survey was conducted collecting data from 338 households through a semi-structured interview schedule. To analyze the data, the multivariate probit model was used. The results indicated that market distance, frequency of extension services and oxen ownership have highly influenced the choice of crop management adaptation strategies to climate change. The likelihood of adopting short- mature crops, high yielding crop variety, and crop compost preparation was relatively higher (95%) as compared to the probability of adopting other strategies. The joint probabilities of success of the adaptation of the crop management adaptation strategies were 15%. Hence, households are more likely to jointly adopt the crop management climate change strategies. Similarly, age of household head, market distance, and oxen ownership were important characteristics affecting the farmers’ choice of animal management as climate change adaptation strategy. The likelihood of adopting hay preparation (89.4%), cut and carry system (77.4%), herd size determination (69.6%) and rotational grazing (67%) were also relatively higher as compared to other strategies. The joint probabilities of adaptation of animal management as climate change adaptation strategy was more likely to be applicable if adoption of the technologies (16.8%) were made jointly compared to their failure to jointly adopt them. Therefore, promoting complementary farm management adaptation practices and considering the socioeconomic factors are crucial to mitigate climate change vulnerability in the study area.
Highlights
Climate change and food security are challenges facing the Ethiopian agricultural system today
Age Based on the ministry of Ethiopian Labour and Social Affair (MoLSA), the demographic age group can be classified based on four classes or cut points
The survey result indicated that about 81 % of the sample households are between the age of 31 to 60 years old, while about 10 % of the sampled households were above 60 years old. This implies that the majority of the farmers sampled were adults who had vast experience in farming and had observed climate change over the years
Summary
Climate change and food security are challenges facing the Ethiopian agricultural system today. There exist serious and direct impacts of climate change on crops, livestock, and water as compared to other economic sectors in the country. Impacts of climate change on the crop sector are in terms of decreasing both productivity/yield and cultivable land due to high temperature and water deficiency (Nathnael & Hanna, 2017). A projection suggests that Ethiopia will experience a 1.7°C–2.1°C increase in the mean temperature by 2050 (Ethiopian Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], 2012). The Ethiopian average annual rainfall has recently shown a very high level of variability for the past 55 years. According to the IPPC report, approximately 20–30 percent of plant and animal species will be endangered if the global average temperature increases by more than 1.5–2.5°C (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2007)
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