Factors affecting changes of greenhouse gas emissions in Belt and Road countries

Abstract

Promoting the sustainable economic development along the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) requires to identify the driving force of total factor productivity (TFP) with the constrains of environmental variables. This study firstly, both theoretically and empirically, investigates the factors affecting changes of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (including CO2, CH4, and N2O) along BRI countries. Here, during 2000–2012, results show that overall average environmental inefficiency value of GHG emissions in the BRI countries was 0.29, 66% of which was contributed by energy and environmental variables. In addition, the average growth rate of TFP incorporating GHG emissions was 0.43%. In terms of source-specific decomposition of TFP, the contribution of technical progress is negative (−0.02%) while that of efficiency change is 0.44%. Turning to variable-specific decomposition, N2O, CH4, CO2, fossil fuel energy consumption, and renewable energy consumption have exhibited significant effects on the environmental progress index of GHG emissions, with the highest share of N2O. Moreover, the growth of N2O and CH4 emissions is primarily attributable to the factor of production of economic growth. The energy cleanliness and emission intensity factors play a significant role in reducing emissions. The increase in CO2 emissions is related to the economic growth factor, while the reduction due to the factor of energy emissions intensity is limited.