FACTOR ANALYSIS OF THREATS AND RISKS OF ECOLOGICAL SAFETY OF AGRICULTURAL LAND USE

Abstract

Introduction. The modern system of land use organization in agriculture does not contribute to ensuring ecological balance in agricultural ecosystems and is characterized by threatening trends of declining ecological and economic efficiency of agricultural production. Given the above, it is necessary to further improve the theoretical and methodological approaches to the formation of environmentally friendly agricultural land use, in particular through the effective functioning of the system of identification of environmental threats and risks. This, in turn, raises the issue of their systematization and impact on the environmental safety of agricultural land use. Methods. The study is based on the use of calculation-constructive and experimental methods to systematize the threats and risks of environmental safety of agricultural land use, the method of factor analysis – to form a model of their interaction, as well as the indicator method – in developing a classification of these threats and risks. Results. The approach to defining the essence of ecologically safe agricultural land use as a process of land use in agriculture is substantiated in the paper. It ensures the prevention of danger to human health, prevention of environmental degradation of agroecosystems and degradation of land resources, as well as their resilience to environmental threats and risks. In accordance with the interpretation of the essential concept of environmentally friendly agricultural land use, the new conceptual approach to its formation is proposed to put the level of assimilation potential of certain types of land (arable land, perennial plantations, pastures, etc.), which in contrast to appointment of a specific agroecosystem based on restrictions and burdens in land use. A factor model in the form of a matrix of direct interaction of these threats (risks) is compiled in order to systematize the threats and risks of environmental safety of agricultural land use caused by eco-destructive factors. The ranking of the most important threats and risks of environmental safety of agricultural land use depending on the levels of their manifestation in time and space was based on this model. Discussion. Given the negative multiplier and synergetic effects of threats and risks to environmental safety of agricultural land use, the topical issue is the formation of a classification of negative factors influencing it, which will serve as a basis for developing methods for assessing the level of safety. Keywords: land use, agriculture, ecological safety, threats, risks, factors, model.