Factor analysis of the housing market in Ukraine (2003–2023)

Abstract

The residential real estate market plays a key role in the development of global and national economies, since it has acted as a powerful driver of GDP growth, increasing the level of employment, household incomes, and profitability of financial institutions, construction organizations and trading enterprises. The house price growth has two dimensions, threat to financial stability and source of economic development. The aim of this research is to formulate a list of criteria, based on which one can decide whether the house price at a given stage of housing market development needs to be constrained or not. The aim is achieved by a multi-perspective analysis of residential real estate market in Ukraine and its evolution. This research is based on general scientific and special methods of cognition, including abstract logical reasoning, grouping, and statistical analysis. The factors that con­tribute to the growth of house prices are formed using the method of principal component analysis, and the effect is estimated using least squares regression. Five stages of the evolution of the Ukrainian residential real estate market are identified according to two general indicators: housing price growth and credit activity. The segmentation is based on signi­ficant changes in market conditions and/or changes in housing price drivers, as well as changes in the regulatory environment. Factors affecting house prices at each of these stages were investigated using principal component analysis to identify variables for regression analysis. A set of criteria has been formed using which one can assess if the current rise in housing prices poses systemic risks to the national financial system and overall economy. Three hypotheses were put forward and their empirical verification was carried out, according to the results of which it was established that demand factors had the greatest impact on housing prices during the observation period; macro-financial conditions primarily affect prices on the primary real estate market; lending conditions affect price dynamics mainly only at the first stage of development of the housing market in Ukraine, which are determined in this study. The main drivers of the housing market in Ukraine are the unemployment rate, income growth levels, and population size. The conclusions drawn can significantly contribute to the monitoring system of the housing market in Ukraine and the analysis of the systemic risks it generates.