Abstract
China, with its fragile environment and ecosystems, is vulnerable to climate change. Continuous changes in climatic conditions have altered precipitation patterns in most regions of China. Droughts become more frequent and severe in the Xi River basin in South China. It is expected that rapid urbanization and climate change will continue to aggravate water stress in this region. There is an urgent need to develop sustainable water management strategies in face of growing water demand and changing water availability. Projection of future climate change impacts on drought conditions has thus become imperative to support improved decision-making in sustainable water management. In this study, we assessed the risk of extreme droughts under future climate projections in the Xi River basin. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was applied to simulate the hydrological processes of the basin under a multitude of future climate scenarios from CMIP5. Based on the precipitation and runoff series obtained from the VIC model, a comprehensive analysis with respect to the major characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts had been carried out. This study is of practical and theoretical importance to both policymakers and scholars. First, this study may be a readily available reference work for policymakers when taking consideration of building drought mitigation plans into future water management practices. Second, the findings in this study may provide some valuable insights into the inherent connection between climatic and hydrological changes under a changing climate. Recognition of the connection and interrelation may contribute to the improvement of climatic and hydrological models in practices.
Highlights
Both climate change and global warming have been at the center of arguments for decades, but almost all scientists and scholars have come to an agreement that the average temperature of our planet has risen by around 1◦C since the last century and the rise is expected to continue in the future (IPCC, 2007)
These results indicate that temperature would increase continuously across the Xi River basin in the future regardless of spatial and temporal considerations
It is expected that both average temperature and precipitation in the Xi River basin would increase in the future
Summary
Both climate change and global warming have been at the center of arguments for decades, but almost all scientists and scholars have come to an agreement that the average temperature of our planet has risen by around 1◦C since the last century and the rise is expected to continue in the future (IPCC, 2007). Rising global temperatures unfreeze polar ice caps resulting in sea Future Drought in Southern China level rise and regional climate change. While regional climate change has increased precipitation in some areas, it has led to droughts in other regions. As a result, both short-term and long-term regional impact studies under climate change are needed to improve policymakers’ understanding of the changing climate and environment, and to highlight the urgency and necessity of developing regional climate mitigation and adaptation plans
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