Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe health and economic impacts globally. Strategies to safely reopen economies, travel and trade are a high priority. Until a reliable vaccine is available, non-pharmaceutical techniques are the only available means of disease control. In this paper, we aim to evaluate the extent to which social distancing (SD) and facemask (FM) use can mitigate the transmission of COVID-19 when restrictions are lifted. We used a microsimulation activity-based model for Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area, to evaluate the power of SD and FM in controlling the pandemic under numerous scenarios. The hypothetical scenarios are designed to picture feasible futures under different assumptions. Assuming that the isolation of infected cases and the quarantining of close contacts are in place, different numerical tests are conducted and a full factorial two-way MANOVA test is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the FM and SD control strategies. The main and interactive effects of the containment strategies are evaluated by the total number of infections, percentage of infections reduction, the time it takes to get the pandemic under control, and the intensity of active cases.
Highlights
Enhanced surveillance and testing, case isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, social distancing (SD), teleworking, travel bans, closing businesses, school closure, and lockdown are the most common strategies implemented worldwide for slowing down COVID-19 spread
Comparing the reduction of infection at all the SD and Facemasks Out-of-Home (FMOH) compliance levels shows that FMOH use by 40% of people has the same effect as the SD compliance of Effect SD FMOH Facemask in-Home (FMH)
Other studies have used SEIR modelling, but we modelled individuals using activity-based modelling to analyse the main and interactive effects of the FM, both out-of-home and in-home, and SD control strategies
Summary
Case isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, social distancing (SD), teleworking, travel bans, closing businesses, school closure, and lockdown are the most common strategies implemented worldwide for slowing down COVID-19 spread. While combinations of these control strategies are currently in place in many countries, continuation of indefinite lockdown is not feasible economically, and long-term restrictions may result in mental and psychological distress [1]. Many authorities are looking at options for easing or lifting of the restrictions. SD and facemasks (FM) are potential control strategies that may enable lifting the restrictions.
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