Eye movements reveal that low confidence precedes deliberation.

Abstract

Contemporary dual-process models of reasoning maintain that there are two types of thinking -intuitive and deliberative -and that low confidence often leads to deliberation. Previous studies examining the confidence -deliberation relationship have been limited by (1) issues of endogeneity and between-subject comparisons, which we address in this study through debias training and (2) measures of confidence that are taken relatively late in the reasoning process, which we address by measuring confidence via real-time eye-tracking. Self-reported and eye-tracked confidence were both negatively related to deliberative thinking. This finding provides new evidence of the timecourse of the confidence -deliberation relationship and reveals that lowered confidence precedes deliberation.