Extremes of ground-based and satellite measurements in the vegetation period for the Carpathian Basin

Abstract

Decadal change in temperature and precipitation time series of the 20th century has been analyzed based on monthly climatological datasets for the Carpathian Basin. Beyond extreme value analysis of precipitation, variability and fluctuation properties have been determined. IPCC TAR suggests that the Carpathian Basin could become highly vulnerable to global warming. Our investigations support these findings, especially, in case of two subregions: (1) Great Hungarian Plain, (2) watershed of the Lake Balaton. Therefore detailed investigations have been carried out for these areas. Besides temperature and precipitation, potential agricultural activity can be characterized by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from remote measurements of NOAA satellites (1981–2001). In our investigations NDVI values for the European continent and the Carpathian Basin have been statistically analyzed during the last two decades. Variation analysis focus on month-by-month fluctuations and possible tendencies. Annual maximum and minimum NDVI fields have been determined for both areas. Then, we have focused on systematic changes of NDVI both in the Carpathian Basin and the entire European region. The main objectives of our research include detailed analysis of regions in these areas, whether or not local consequences of the global climate warming can be detected. Therefore, tendencies in NDVI time series have been analyzed for selected subregions comparing different type of lands, especially hilly and plain areas.