Extremes and variability of wind and waves across the oceans until the end of the 21st century

Abstract

The wave model WAVEWATCHIII is used to produce wave information, until the end of the 21st century, covering all ocean areas. Global wind and ice-cover climate data from a total of 120 years are used as input for the wave model. The period is divided into four 30-year slices, where the first (1980–2009) represents the recent past, the second (2010–2039) the near future, the third (2040–2069) the mid-century and the last one (2070–2099) represents the end of the 21st century. For each period, the mean value, the standard deviation and the 99th percentile are computed for significant wave height of total sea, wave energy and cumulative wave energy, and also for the 10-m wind magnitude field, used to force the wave model. Changes from the recent past to the present and to each of the two future periods are obtained and analyzed. The results show an increase in mean significant wave height of total sea, wave energy and cumulative wave energy in the South Atlantic, and an increase in variability and a decrease of mean significant wave height of total sea in the North Atlantic. Other regions also present changes but are less marked and less consistent through time.