Extreme wind speeds in mixed wind climates

Abstract

In this paper, a technique is discussed which enables extreme wind speed probabilities in mixed wind climates to be determined. It is shown that in such wind climates the method is likely to yield more accurate probability estimates than the traditional Gumbel analysis of annual wind speed maxima, particularly for annual probabilities of less than 2% (i.e. return periods greater than 50 years). The technique requires a separate analysis of each significant wind-producing meteorological phenomenon and practical methods of achieving this are presented. Extreme wind speed parameters obtained from each analysis may then be combined to yield a “composite extreme wind speed diagram” and several examples illustrating this procedure are shown. By means of a numerical simulation of a typical mixed wind climate, a detailed study is made of the distribution of extreme wind gusts from different meteorological phenomena. This study indicates that a Gumbel analysis of 20 annual maxima may severely underestimate low annual probability (i.e. long return period) gust speeds.