Extreme wind speed distributions for tropical cyclones

Abstract

A Monte-Carlo simulation technique has been used in order to determine the distributions of the annual maximum wind speed due to tropical cyclones in Guadeloupe, Martinique, Reunion, New Caledonia and Tahiti. Working from the distributions of the parameters of the cyclones for each of these regions, and applying a physical model, a large number of cyclone seasons were simulated. 10-min mean wind speed, 10 m above sea level, with return periods from 10 to 1000 years were then estimated. The uncertainty inherent in the method has been evaluated for wind speeds with return periods of 50 and 1000 years.