Extreme weather and migration: evidence from Bangladesh

Abstract

Using retrospective migration history data collected in southwestern Bangladesh, we examine the relationship between extreme weather conditions—warm spells, dry spells, wet spells, and intense precipitation—and the likelihood that male household heads make a first internal or international migrant trip. We also investigate whether and how agricultural livelihoods and having a close migrant relative are associated with migration in response to extreme weather. Findings reveal that dry spells are most consistently associated with increased migration, although we see some evidence that first trips also increase after warm spells and above average rainfall. Associations between dry spells and warm spells are more pronounced among household heads with agricultural livelihoods. We find little evidence that having migrant relatives is associated with migration after extreme weather events, but some evidence that the presence of migrant networks at the community level is associated with international migration after an environmental shock.