Extreme wave climate variability in southern Europe using satellite data

Abstract

A time‐dependent generalized extreme value (GEV) model for monthly significant wave height maxima from satellite databases is used to model the seasonal and interannual variability of the extreme wave climate throughout southern Europe. In order to avoid a misleading use of the maxima time series, the classical extreme value model has been modified to cope with nonhomogeneous monthly observations. Seasonality is represented using intraannual harmonic functions in the model, while interannual variability is modeled including North Atlantic and Mediterranean regional scale sea level pressure predictors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic (EA), or the east Atlantic/western Russian (EA/WR) patterns. The results quantify the strong spatial variability detected in the seasonal location and scale GEV parameters. In general, prominent zonal (west–east) and meridional (north–south) gradients of these location and scale parameters reveal the predominance of low‐pressure centers located in the NAO region (e.g., a gradient of 4 m for the location parameter and 1.5 units for the scale parameter between north–south is shown in the month of September). The model also quantifies the influence of regional climate patterns on extreme wave climate. Results show a great influence of NAO and EA on the Atlantic basin (e.g., every unit of the monthly NAO index explains 25 cm of the extreme wave height in the Gulf of Biscay and the EA index explains 20 cm) while the negative phases of EA/WR contribute greatly to the western Mediterranean basin.